The Astros seem to have made an overpayment. Sending two talented youngsters with big-league time and another high-minor prospect to Toronto in exchange for impending free-agent rental starter Yuki Kikuchi is a bit rich given how the market has played out so far this deadline.
To be clear, the Astros should go for it. That is not the issue here. Houston squared off with the Mariners in the AL West on Monday. After a sluggish start to 2024, they have surprisingly climbed out of the abyss. If you use guys like Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordon Alvarez, the World Series is always realistic. This club has made seven consecutive ALCS for a reason.
The Astros also correctly identified an area of need on their roster: starting pitching. Several injuries have criminally depleted Houston’s rotation. But the issues here are (1) the player they bought and (2) the price they paid.
Yusei Kikuchi is a quality MLB starter who should fit right into Houston’s rotation and extend the innings. But is he starting a postseason game for the Astros? Probably not, unless the ice-cold Justin Verlander is healthy in October. Verlander, Framber Valdez and a pair of breakout performers Ronel Blanco and Hunter Brown will be ahead of Kikuchi on the list. The 33-year-old Japanese southpaw started the season well, but his secondary has been a complete flop this year, and considering he’s a free agent at the end of the season, the price Houston paid seems steep to me.
Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner are in Triple-A or have big league time. That indicates Toronto is more interested in renewal than rebuilding, which makes sense considering Bo Pichet and Wladimir Guerrero Jr. are under contract for next season. So who are they?
Blass scored three starts in his debut run for Houston this season, but take those numbers with a whole grain of salt. The 23-year-old right-hander was drafted out of Georgetown University last season and rushed to the big leagues as a result of Houston’s injury woes. He was a heater in the mid-90s with a great carry, which gives him a great platform in the future. There’s still a lot of work to be done here, but he’s in control of the team until the sun melts.
From a physical perspective, Loperfido is similar to Cody Bellinger. Obviously, he’s not that good, but has the athleticism with a big swinging OF/1B. The former Duke Blue Devil’s debut this year has been more blunt than disastrous, though he’s run a woe-inducing strikeout rate. If he can cut down on some whiffs in the zone, he could be a decent every day player.
Wagner, the son of former MLB closer Billy Wagner, is an up-and-down utility bench guy with good swing results and low power.
Kikuchi will hit the open market at the end of the season and when comparing Toronto’s record to the low return the White Sox received for a highly sought-after starter in Eric Fede, it’s hard not to see this as Houston’s overpay.
